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Shao Yu 2011 macroeconomic's main theme is built around "inflation". At present, the downward trend in inflation has been set, and is expected to remain about two quarters. This trend of investment direction, thinking is our starting point. We believe that inflation downward phase typically is a contraction of the economy, but doesn't mean that all the shares are not performances. A detailed analysisState of the economy, understand the industry and the economy on a periodic basis, we believe that the downward phase of inflation, mid-range consumer stocks as good defense, will have the opportunity to relative gains in two quarters. We estimate that in November 2011 and December consumer price index (CPI) is about 4.5%, CPI for the year 2012 at about 4%。 CPI and the producer price index (PPI) downward trend is established, and PPI downlink speeds faster than the CPI.　　It means that the disparity of the CPI and PPI (CPI-PPI) will be even more significant impact on the industry. At the consumer level, growth of the middle class is taking place in China have significant thing in the world. In this cycle of high inflation,Rising prices eating revenue, it is difficult to see growth in consumption and improving the quality of; in the downward cycle of inflation is likely to occur "lower consumption up", "upper-class consumption down" and "date" of South. The reason is that lower consumer spending power was no longer suppressed by the prices; to cool the economy led to enterprise and government savings, upper-class consumer right down.It should be noted that, in the context of domestic "middle class" standards (such as college education, having a car, there is room, travel abroad each year, and so on) has gone far beyond its literal meaning. Here we are talking about "middle class", statistical significance refers to those on household income of $ 30,000 to $ 60,000 or so individuals, or with an annual income of about $ 80,000 to $ 120,000 families (also due to geographical, there will alwaysThe difference). At present, the downward inflation and CPI-PPI downlink speed characteristics prompted us, Fundamentals of downstream industries face a relatively good. Analysis of consumer behavior changes in inflation down further pointed out to us, low-end move closer to the midrange and high-end spending increased. Then, in the end-consumer demand may contain the best fundamentals for some time to come. Based on theThis logic, we looked at convenient hotels, mid-range restaurants, wine, home-made wine and mid-range brand clothing, medicine, medical equipment, short-distance travel, thousands of smartphones, faces strong demand from industries such as online shopping and product. In the a-share markets, we proposed concern the following sectors: first, the food and beverage industry. Food and drink industry is the most on inflation-sensitiveOne of the industry. Inflation down, in particular meat and vegetables and other food prices stable, will reduce the cost of food processing enterprises, and jujube nuclear and chemical consumption trends will promote enterprise needs. Dairy industry are even more benefits from the consumption trend of the upgrade. Wine classes, inexpensive wine face growing demand, and homemade wines as a midrange meal and substitution of imported wine growingAll ages.　　There is also a hairy crab culture and wine culture promoting positive, might rise in alcohol consumption. Second is food tourism industry. The situation facing the industry has been in short supply, is typical of the inflation down to benefit industry. Tourism expenditure upgrade problems: diversification of consumer content, such as the increasingly popular cultural tourism; consumption frequency spectrumPropagation, weekend tours, Gao Tieyou, automobile travel, getting around small-scale tourism increase in single tourism consumption point of view swtor power leveling, there may also be improved. Restaurant and hotel is a business area of consumption-led, in the context of economic slump, reducing per capita consumption is inevitable. In the hotel industry, star hotel growth behind the convenient hotel. Convenient hotel offers comfortable and cleanAccommodation, to meet the basic needs, can be accepted by the business, business customers, and reduce costs. Thirdly, the textile and garment industry. In the field of fine elements, textile manufacturing industry in the middle is, the price of cotton and cloth price fluctuations can have a big impact; wearing home textiles is the downstream sector, strong demand is not sensitive to inflation down, industry boom will remain relatively high.Finally, light industry and chemical industry. Light industry covers a wider, both at the middle reaches of the packaging and printing industry, directly facing the jewellery of the final consumer, entertainment, furniture the old republic power leveling, wood and other sub-sectors. Among them, correlation of the tobacco industry and inflation the lowest, and even show some degree of negative correlation. In the course of future inflation down, tobacco industry's relative prosperity should be higher than for otherMost of the industry.　　Tobacco industry not listed company, but there are a number of companies main business is the tobacco industry with raw materials, they would be exposed to more abundant demand. Finally, there is the pharmaceutical industry. Pharmaceutical industry economy has maintained a relatively high level, including private specialized medical care and medical devices by the State policy to support, demand will increase remains high for a long time to comeSpeed. Available in inflation down excess return.　　In the pharmaceutical industry, stable of traditional Chinese medicine, medicinal materials price downward, is a typical passive prices down, inflation down will benefit. (The writer, orient securities analyst)