the market bottoms

This week's a-shares continued necking shocks, also score $ 46.25 billion stage in Shanghai on Friday deal "quantity". Long and short sides and is the essence of economic fundamentals, drove down and easing between the expectations game. At present, the investors to the domestic economy into "winter" concerns, have led the recent market movements. Bearish on the a-share investors, domestic economic growth continuesFall is undoubtedly the most powerful argument. From 9.7% per cent in the third quarter of 9.1%,GDP in the first quarter growth trends more pronounced, more recently released economic data confirms the economy "winter" judgments. After the October producer price index in November 2008 lower than the consumer price index for the first time. Based on historical experience, every time under monthly PPIWhen wearing CPI, CPI drop will grow significantly in the coming months, this is market consensus forecast November CPI will be lower than 5% one of the reasons. HSBC PMI initial value released this week is only 48, returning to the bust under watershed, prompting economic risks that may fall further in the future. In addition, prices in November growing downward trend or, and not seen policiesRelaxing opportunities. Taking into account their current irreplaceable pillar industries in China's economic position, the domestic economy is likely to step into the real "winter". Research institution widely predicted that next year is likely to be in the second quarter GDP up bottom of window. A share is more positive judgement is mainly based on easing is expected. Whether it's on preconditioning to fine-tune monetary policy by the Central BankArguments, also is in Zhejiang rural credit banks this week to restore 16% deposit reserve rates, policies directed trend of relaxing is more determined. In addition, the current background of European debt crisis spreading to the eurozone core countries, global capital market risk aversion high, October first negative growth in the Foreign Exchange accounts for nearly 4 years, shows that hot money is returning US dollar assets, thus easing of monetary policyPreparation of feasibility. In General, the stock market ahead of the economy bottoming. The end of October 2008, the market bottoms, and GDP growth per cent at the end of the first quarter of 2009, on the surface do comply with the law. But the problem is that, at the time under extremely adverse conditions of internal and external economic environment, fiscal policy and monetary policy is a sharp turn catalyst shares hit bottom at that time.For now, but, in the domestic economy slowly landing stage swtor power leveling, still do not have the necessity of shifting monetary policy completely. "Twelve-Five" economies in transition, of fiscal policy on emerging industry can support immediate push on foster domestic economic development, it remains to be seen. Therefore, instead of betting on "obscurity" relax expectations, rather than economic fundamentals into "HanWinter "of reality, which is the main logic leading a-share market in the near future. According to the Merrill Lynch investment theory of clock, double descent in economic growth and inflation, with the strengthening of monetary easing is expected, bonds tend to usher in a wave bull market. In the late stage, that is, when economic growth is near the bottom, the stock market will usher in a real opportunity. Inflation peaked in July, which is widely considered domesticEconomy will at the end of the second quarter of 2012, see, the current a-shares the stage is the toughest moment precisely, which also heralded the dawn ahead. Gold-line statement: Gold-line reproduced above, does not indicate that confirm the description for investor use only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors a basis for action, at your own risk.